While housing affordability continues to be a national issue, Q1 2025 data reveals an interesting dynamic: New South Wales and Victoria are seeing price softening, while states like Western Australia, Queensland, and South Australia are experiencing double-digit growth.
For the first time in years, we’re witnessing a geographical reshaping of Australia’s housing market. And it may be the early sign of a longer-term shift in affordability, population movement, and housing demand.
What the Numbers Show
| State | Quarterly Price Change | Annual Growth |
|---|---|---|
| NSW | -0.9% | +3.3% |
| VIC | -1.6% | -2.3% |
| QLD | +1.3% | +12.1% |
| SA | +2.1% | +14.0% |
| WA | +2.4% | +21.0% |
While price declines in NSW and VIC may look modest, they signal a cooling effect—driven by rising mortgage costs, affordability constraints, and changing buyer priorities.
“What we’re seeing is not a collapse, but a stabilisation. People are re-evaluating where they can live and what they can afford,” said one property strategist following the Q1 report.
What’s Driving the Shift?
- Affordability ceilings in Sydney and Melbourne are pushing buyers outward
- Remote and hybrid work has untethered many from capital city offices
- Regional infrastructure investment is making outer suburbs and regional cities more appealing
- First-home buyers and investors are chasing better value in emerging markets
As a result, buyer activity is ramping up in Queensland, SA, and WA—particularly in lifestyle areas, resource-driven regions, and high-growth urban corridors.
Implications for Sellers and Buyers
For sellers in NSW and VIC, the message is clear: pricing strategically is more important than ever. Overpricing can lead to longer days on market and lost buyer interest. Buyers, on the other hand, may find more room to negotiate—especially in inner and middle-ring suburbs.
In the growth states, competition remains strong. Properties are moving faster, and upward price pressure means buyers need to act decisively.
National vs Local Affordability
While national median values are often quoted, the reality is far more local. The affordability conversation isn’t just about price—it’s about:
- Access to jobs
- Housing diversity
- Commute times
- Quality of life
And as more people weigh these factors alongside budget, the definition of “affordable” is changing.
What Happens Next?
Post-election policy changes could further influence affordability. Whether it’s through housing subsidies, planning reforms, or infrastructure investment, the government’s response will shape whether these affordability trends continue—or reverse.
One thing is certain: the gap between high-growth and high-cost markets is widening, and that will continue to shape buyer behaviour well into 2025.
Thinking about buying or selling in this shifting market? Get your free house price report at www.checkmyhouseprice.com.au and make your next move with confidence.
Leave a Reply